Washington’s high-scoring D isn’t just throwing everything on net. In Carbery’s system, Chychrun remarkably picks his spots to cash in.
Has Jakob Chychrun found his home at last? Drafted by the Coyotes and rescued by the Senators, the agile D signed an 8-year deal with the Caps and followed it up with a Norris-caliber season, scoring a league-leading 26 goals in the process (34A, 60P in 80 GP).
Did Chychrun set a new standard, then, or just catch a hot streak? Superficially, his 11.8 Shooting% hints at a regress to the mean next season, but there might be ways to sustain the pace—here’s a look at one of them.
What it means on the ice.
The Stat: Elite shot volume throughout the OZ.
Chychrun’s NHL lead in goals among D correlates with a 99th percentile rank in shot volume altogether. Note how his shot locations are all over the place, with no other defenseman crashing the crease as aggressively.
In 2025/26, Chychrun ranked:
- 3rd in shots overall
- 1st in high-danger shots
- 7th in mid-range shots
- 8th in long-range shots
This already gives clues as to why his elite scoring pace could be sustainable:
- Chychrun gets more SOG through than almost any other NHL D, so even if Shooting% regresses, scoring should sustain through volume.
- No other NHL D creates as many high-danger chances, which correlate with the highest xShooting% and, subsequently, xGoals.
The Insight: Damage gets done from the mid-range.
Chychrun netted half of his 2025/26 goal total from the mid-range, inflating his Shooting% on the year with a whopping 20.6%. To evaluate if this is sustainable, we have to test against two questions:
- Is his 20.6 Shooting% a complete statistical anomaly?
No. Chychrun’s 20.6% from the mid-range only ranked 5th in the NHL among defenseman, with those above him all elite in name and stature (thus hinting at skill involved). - Has Chychrun generally had a lucky season?
No. Despite creating the most high-danger shots in the NHL, he ranked in the bottom half among D-men in Shooting% from in tight. His conversion from the blue line is good but not great, ranking outside the top-10.
This leads us to the conclusion that…
- Chychrun is an elite finisher from the high slot, or
- the mid-range is where his offensive strengths are optimally utilized in Washington’s system.
Both would be sustainable in theory, and repeatable in principle. From studying the tape, here’s how both factors are manifesting simultaneously.
The Play: East-west on the goalie from soft spots in the OZ.
On the play below, Chychrun “creates his own luck”, aided by Washington’s dynamic cycle in the OZ. Covered by the Leafs’ D1 on his strong-side, Chychrun rotates into the high slot on his off-wing (red area) to…
- open up a shooting lane past “his man”,
- find a soft spot within the Leafs’ DZ coverage and confuse assignments,
- become available for the one-timer on his off-wing,
- and make life hard on the goalie off an east-west play.
These are elite-hockey IQ habits that can turn the statistical “mid-range SOG” into a high-percentage scoring chance in reality—and repeatably so.
